I know this will drive you non-Trump fans over the edge but I beg your indulgence. I am not trying to poke a finger in your reddened eyes. Hear me out.
What is the normal pattern of both Democrat and Republican primary campaigns? The winner usually has the challenge of having to walk back/deny policies and positions they advocated in the primary. In fact, as we are observing in the Democrat primary, Hillary Clinton is busy trying to make herself into a socialist in order to compete with Bernie. Yet, as sure as the Sun will rise in the East, if she nails down the nomination she will immediately do her version of the Michael Moonwalk and start shimmying towards the middle.
But on this point Trump is breaking with a bad tradition. Trump has four basic political tenets as the foundation of his campaign:
- Protect American jobs from bad trade agreements and bad deals with foreign countries.
- Protect America from illegal and dangerous immigrants.
- Protect America’s veterans.
- Build better relations with Russia and China and keep America out of unnecessary foreign conflicts and wars.
Anyone care to argue that he has to change those positions to compete in November? I don’t know if he planned this or stumbled into it, but the end result is very smart. He’s not locked into a strident anti-abortion/pro-life position that he has to walk back in November. The Donald of the primaries will be the Donald of the General Election and this is bad news for Hillary.
She is in trouble with the economy. She is tainted with the Obama legacy. Obama is delusional in his continue insistence that he has worked a miracle on the U.S. economy. Yep. He has. He is the first President not to crack 3% growth during his Presidency:
On Thursday the Commerce Department announced that the US economy expanded at the slowest pace in two years. GDP growth rose at an anemic 0.5% rate after a paltry 1.4% fourth quarter advance.
Ronald Reagan brought forth an annual real GDP growth of 3.5%.
Barack Obama will be lucky to average a 1.55% GDP growth rate.
This ranks Obama as the fourth worst presidency on record.
Barack Obama will be the only U.S. president in history who did not deliver a single year of 3.0%+ economic growth.
During Barack Obama’s tenure the United States has continued to shed solid, middle class production and manufacturing jobs. Trade agreements, going back to NAFTA (which Bill Clinton touted as one of the major achievements of his Presidency), greased the skids for the movement of tens of thousands of good paying jobs to Mexico, Canada and Asia.
If Pearl Harbor happened today the United States would be hard pressed to replicate the explosion in the production of ships, boats, tanks, armored vehicles, planes and arms that was achieved in 1942.
Not only is Hillary tainted with the Obama economy, she is thoroughly stained with Bill Clinton’s economic record. Not only did he sign and implement NAFTA but he also pushed through changes to the regulation of the financial industry. He is not solely responsible but he played a major role in enabling the corruption on Wall Street that brought about the 2008 collapse.
Bernie Sanders has flayed Hillary on the economic argument and she has not had an effective response. That will continue if she is running against Trump. Trump and Bernie share the populist message and have been very effective in pressing the case for change.
People laugh at Donald Trump for his promise to “build the wall.” Well, guess what? Building a massive wall along the Mexican border will require the manufacture of lots of building materials–iron, steel, concrete, bricks, etc. Trump will insist, I’m sure, on using only American made materials. That will create tens of thousands of jobs and is likely to be a precursor for other public works projects. I suspect his catch phrase, “Make America Great Again,” has a literal component to it. Once done with the way there are highways and bridges and other infrastructure to be rebuilt.
Post WWII America did this once and is likely to be called on to do it again. In building the Wall, Trump will also be taking a swipe at illegal immigration. Look for a strict requirement to verify citizenship of anyone employed on these jobs. Hillary confronts a true dilemma. If she challenges Trump’s plan she’ll be cast as the person trying to protect a status quo that many Americans believes is screwing them. If she does a “me too” routine she ends up validating Trump.
Second, on the foreign policy/national security front, Hillary also is vulnerable. She is on the record voting to invade Iraq and continues to advocate U.S. intervention in other countries–Libya and Syria are the two most recent examples. Remember, she joined Marco Rubio in calling for a “No Fly” zone in Syria for the express purpose of a potential military confrontation with Russia. Is she crazy?
And the Donald? Very simple. He wants better relations with Russia and China. He’s not looking for a new war, he is looking for new deals.
Here’s the bottom line–Donald Trump will run on the same platform in the General Election that he ran on in the primaries and, judging by the huge surge in Republican votes, it is a position that is likely to resonate with more Americans than the Hillary position.
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